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Prediction markets for WRITER

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

422978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

1107

Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?

Dec 18, 5:02 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

3.22%chance

252639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1678

939

Will Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.51%chance

221991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

952

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

Is the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) a man?

Jun 20, 6:06 PMJun 21, 6:06 PM

82.12%chance

4196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?

Nov 3, 8:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.93%chance

5121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

29

By the end of 2025, will WGA writers be widely agreed to have worse job prospects/compensation due to AI screenwriting?

Jul 2, 4:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.96%chance

7112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

151

Who is Tsugumi Ohba, the writer of Death Note?

Jun 20, 6:05 PMJun 21, 6:04 PM

286

OptionProbability

Hiroshi Gamo

Other

Toshio Okada

Takeshi Obata

50

29

12

10

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be revealed by the end of 2030?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.82%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo by the end of 2028?

Jun 20, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo before he dies?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMJun 21, 6:02 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will the identity of the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be kept a secret successfully until after they die?

Jun 20, 6:03 PMJun 20, 6:03 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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