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Prediction markets for WRITER

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

10.64%chance

445031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3584

468

Will Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.51%chance

221991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

952

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2028?

May 12, 9:30 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

60.83%chance

14531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

191

Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 4, 5:14 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

3.76%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

453

167

Is the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) a man?

Jun 20, 6:06 PMJun 21, 6:06 PM

82.12%chance

4196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?

Nov 3, 8:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.93%chance

5121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

29

Will the non-fiction writers suing OpenAI and Microsoft obtain class certification?

Jan 8, 2:45 PMJan 2, 9:59 PM

10.01%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

17

Who is Tsugumi Ohba, the writer of Death Note?

Jun 20, 6:05 PMJun 21, 6:04 PM

286

OptionProbability

Hiroshi Gamo

Other

Toshio Okada

Takeshi Obata

50

29

12

10

Will Content writers regain say despite ChatGPT?

May 9, 2:41 AMMay 9, 2:40 AM

65.53%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be revealed by the end of 2030?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.82%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will the identity of the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be kept a secret successfully until after they die?

Jun 20, 6:03 PMJun 20, 6:03 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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