OptionProbability
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$150
100
20
6
3
Strait is open for non aggressive states
Nothing happens - strait stays closed, no power plant attacks
Mukesh
Iran closes and restricts usage of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. either makes a deal or decides to pull back.
A US-flagged oil tanker successfully travels through the Strait of Hormuz
WTI Crude Oil >= $100 at market close
US hits an Iranian power plant by April
Busehr power plant suffers critical damage
Widespread damage to Iran's critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Trump claims he never made an ultimatum
Iran hits a desalination plant by April
Widespread damage to Gulf critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Widespread damage to Israel's critical infrastructure by the end of March.
A nuclear weapon is used.
Iran says they will open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours
S&P500 and Dow Jones both close down on Monday from Fridays Close
VIX (Volatility Index) closes at or above $30.00 on Monday? (Friday Closed 26.78)
83
79
73
69
48
40
17
15
7
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1135
684
1300
769
1528
655
