OptionProbability
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$150
100
31
14
6
WTI Crude Oil >= $100 at market close
US hits an Iranian power plant by April
Widespread damage to Iran's critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Widespread damage to Gulf critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Nothing happens - strait stays closed, no power plant attacks
Busehr power plant suffers critical damage
Iran hits a desalination plant by April
Widespread damage to Israel's critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Iran says they will open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours
A nuclear weapon is used.
81
66
56
47
45
44
15
5
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1252
510
2005
499
Brent $8.01 to $15 higher than WTI
Brent $4.01 to $8 higher than WTI
Brent more than $15 higher than WTI
Brent $0.01 to $4 higher than WTI
Brent lower than WTI
38
36
16
10
1685
593
316
29