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Prediction markets for XYZ

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2030?

Apr 1, 7:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

86.42%chance

361308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

874

Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?

Feb 13, 3:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.58%chance

221035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

970

Poland: Will the CPI inflation in Poland exceed X% by the end of 2025?

Jan 18, 4:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2910

OptionProbability

>2%

>3%

>4%

>5%

>6%

>7%

89

78

50

50

21

11

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2025?

Apr 1, 7:26 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.58%chance

26832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

923

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

5765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?

Jan 14, 3:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.97%chance

15690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

927

If we encounter intelligent aliens, will they turn out to lack self-awareness? [read description]

Feb 11, 7:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.31%chance

599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

107

What is the best single financial market proxy for which party wins the White House in 2024?

Mar 1, 1:48 AM

00

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Feb 3, 4:26 AM

640

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