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Prediction markets for YES Network

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?

Jan 9, 2:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

69.57%chance

5113342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

445

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

75.11%chance

2811608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

836

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

70.49%chance

285036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

697

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

284981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

923

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.21%chance

983383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

1419

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.93%chance

271514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

967

Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026?

Oct 22, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

321048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

1257

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.69%chance

27778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

706

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

29.93%chance

22556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

928

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