OptionProbability
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
Manifold is eternal
Not with a bang but a whimper
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
They go bankrupt
with thunderous applause
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
Other
Overall bans on prediction markets by major governments
Outcompeted in the online marketplace
A lover's quarrel
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
Heat death
Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama
Erotic auto-asphyxiation
destroyed by great hwan empire
will be dyed into a zebra pattern in black and grey
18
15
13
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2674
597
2027
2035
2031
2033
2029
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
Later than 2045 or never
59
790
399
