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Prediction markets for Zhipu

Which AI lab will get a perfect score on the IMO 2026?

Jul 12, 12:12 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

14025793

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Z.ai / Zhipu

Aristotle

DeepSeek

Moonshot

xAI

Meta

100

55

38

15

14

12

9

8

1

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Is Pony Alpha a new GLM model?

Feb 8, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

99%chance

61042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

65

Zhipu Revenue by EOY 2026

Jan 19, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3362

OptionProbability

$500m USD

$600m USD

Greater than $800m USD

$700m USD

$800m USD

Under $400m USD

27

17

15

14

14

13

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

7171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

58

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

A new entrant (not in top 100) on arena.ai enters top 50 before EOY 2027?

Apr 24, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.82%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Anthropic

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Zhipu / Z.ai

StepFun

Other (any company not listed above)

14

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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