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Prediction markets for Zhipu

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.53%chance

356596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11161

8960

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

73325

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

SenseTime

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Tencent

Baidu

Lenovo

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Cambricon

Deepseek

MiniMax

17

17

17

12

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

8

8

Is Pony Alpha a new GLM model?

Feb 8, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

99%chance

61042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

65

Zhipu Revenue by EOY 2026

Jan 19, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41013

OptionProbability

$600m USD

$500m USD

Greater than $800m USD

$700m USD

$800m USD

Under $400m USD

21

19

19

18

18

5

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.55%chance

9346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

78

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.14%chance

7174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7107

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

Anthropic

OpenAI

StepFun

25

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

5

5

5

A new entrant (not in top 100) on arena.ai enters top 50 before EOY 2027?

Apr 24, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.82%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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