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Prediction markets for Zhipu

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52825

OptionProbability

SenseTime

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Deepseek

Tencent

Baidu

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

MiniMax

iFlyTek

18

17

17

12

10

10

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Is Pony Alpha a new GLM model?

Feb 8, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

99%chance

61042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

65

Zhipu Revenue by EOY 2026

Jan 19, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3362

OptionProbability

$500m USD

$600m USD

Greater than $800m USD

$700m USD

$800m USD

Under $400m USD

27

17

15

14

14

13

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

8325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

66

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

573

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

StepFun

Anthropic

OpenAI

16

10

10

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

5

5

A new entrant (not in top 100) on arena.ai enters top 50 before EOY 2027?

Apr 24, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.82%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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