Aaron News

2026 Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maine?

Aug 19, 8:24 PMNov 4, 4:59 AM

130277980

OptionProbability

Graham Platner

Other

Janet Mills

Ryan Fecteau

Cathy Breen

Aaron Frey

Jordan Wood

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Aug 3, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

2610023

OptionProbability

2027 and beyond

2026

2025

2023

2024

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

175913

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Mar 19, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

263103

OptionVotes

YES

1004

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

251287

OptionProbability

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Long-term Future Fund

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Center on Long-Term Risk

Lightcone Infrastructure

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

Will Aaron Donald unretire from the NFL?

Jun 1, 6:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.22%chance

12334

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Apr 10, 9:59 AMDec 31, 8:58 AM

57.08%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

219

100

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 4:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Is Aaron Meyer (https://aaronmayer.me/) funny

Sep 21, 6:42 PM

Aaron News

Prediction markets for Aaron

Prediction markets for Aaron

Prediction markets for Aaron

2026 Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maine?

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Will Aaron Donald unretire from the NFL?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Is Aaron Meyer (https://aaronmayer.me/) funny

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