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Prediction markets for Aaron

Aaron Rodgers signs with the Minnesota Vikings before the start of the 2025 NFL season

Mar 12, 6:21 PMSep 4, 12:00 AM

1.02%chance

129951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9852

102

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Aug 3, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

216991

OptionProbability

2026

2027 and beyond

2025

2024

2023

76

19

3

1

0

Which NFL roster will Aaron Rodgers be on on September 1st 2025?

Nov 24, 2:27 AMSep 1, 3:59 PM

404591

OptionProbability

Pittsburgh Steelers

None

New York Jets

Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland Browns

New Orleans Saints

New York Giants

Tennessee Titans

Los Angeles Rams

Minnesota Vikings

NA

San Francisco 49ers

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Aaron Rodgers future (add answers)

Nov 24, 12:01 AMSep 5, 3:59 AM

332691

OptionProbability

Remains unsigned on April 1st, 2025

Remains unsigned when 2025 draft begins

Starts Week One of NFL Season

Retires before 2025 season

Joins NY Giants

Traded before 2025 season

Joins Minnesota Vikings

Released by the jets before the end of the 2024 season (including playoffs)

Goes on IR in 2024

100

100

93

2

2

1

1

0

0

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Mar 19, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.39%chance

221676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

51

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Lightcone Infrastructure

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Center on Long-Term Risk

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

17

13

13

13

10

9

6

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

MLB: Will Aaron Judge hit more than 54 home runs in the 2025 season?

Jan 21, 7:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.41%chance

7162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will Aaron Judge hit more than 62 home runs in the 2025 MLB season?

Apr 5, 7:43 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

6146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

82

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 4:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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