Aaron News

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Aug 3, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

2710123

OptionProbability

2027 and beyond

2026

2025

2023

2024

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

206046

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Mar 19, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.84%chance

304158

OptionVotes

YES

1886

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

251287

OptionProbability

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Long-term Future Fund

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Center on Long-Term Risk

Lightcone Infrastructure

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Apr 10, 9:59 AMDec 31, 8:58 AM

57.39%chance

11755

OptionVotes

YES

219

101

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Aug 31, 1:54 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

23.33%chance

8612

OptionVotes

YES

1449

819

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 8:58 AM

27.06%chance

4167

OptionVotes

YES

173

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 4:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Is Aaron Meyer (https://aaronmayer.me/) funny

Sep 21, 6:42 PM

Aaron News

Prediction markets for Aaron

Prediction markets for Aaron

Prediction markets for Aaron

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Is Aaron Meyer (https://aaronmayer.me/) funny

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