Aaron News

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Aug 3, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

217108

OptionProbability

2026

2027 and beyond

2025

2024

2023

Who will play the next James Bond?

Jan 6, 2:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

426610

OptionProbability

Aaron Taylor-Johnson

Other

Callum Turner

Henry Cavil

Jack Lowden

Tom Holland

Theo James

Harris Dickinson

Jacob Elordi

Idris Elba

Tom Hardy

Tom Hiddleston

Cillian Murphy

Paul Mescal

Pierce Brosnan

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

115646

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Mar 19, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.77%chance

232108

OptionVotes

YES

566

195

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Oct 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

6982

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 4:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Is Aaron Meyer (https://aaronmayer.me/) funny

Sep 21, 6:42 PM

Aaron News

Prediction markets for Aaron

Prediction markets for Aaron

Prediction markets for Aaron

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Who will play the next James Bond?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Is Aaron Meyer (https://aaronmayer.me/) funny

Latest stories