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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.67%chance

18391290856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4963

3791

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369428

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

7

2

1

1

1

0

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68142589

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

OpenAI o4

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

DeepSeek-V4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

85

82

80

77

62

41

36

35

29

25

23

17

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14692045

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

39.01%chance

7330993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

615

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.87%chance

13128734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10560

8654

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

35%chance

9025799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will Elon Musk beat Mark Zuckerberg if they fight in a cage match?

Jun 22, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.75%chance

809862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

1425

Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?

Jan 30, 4:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.61%chance

818103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1982

659

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

154073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

202095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

959

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