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Abel News
Prediction markets for Abel
Prediction markets for Abel
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Mar 12, 7:22 AM
Feb 2, 1:29 PM
22.35%
chance
32
1883
Option
Votes
YES
NO
188
54
Will the Sumatran Orangutan (Pongo abelii) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 21, 5:05 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
47.52%
chance
14
231
Option
Votes
YES
NO
611
368
Ben Thorp aka Abel
May 8, 6:49 PM
May 9, 1:59 PM
6
134
Option
Probability
YES
NO
215
120
Will Jean-Pierre Serre live to 100?
Mar 14, 11:14 PM
Sep 15, 11:59 PM
79.26%
chance
3
48
Option
Votes
NO
YES
141
86
Will a 20+page book "abelian shear cohomology OR sheaf theory for wordcels" be written by EOY2028?
Feb 15, 6:14 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
46.62%
chance
2
7
Option
Votes
YES
NO
107
93
Historical figures must save on avg. the lives of x * N people to be as well-known as figures who killed N. x=?
Dec 5, 11:45 PM
3
0
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