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Prediction markets for Abel

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

24.31%chance

311873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

57

Will the Sumatran Orangutan (Pongo abelii) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 5:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.52%chance

14231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

611

368

Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?

Jun 1, 12:45 PMJul 29, 11:00 PM

57.37%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Ben Thorp aka Abel

May 8, 6:49 PMMay 9, 1:59 PM

6134

OptionProbability

YES

NO

215

120

Colombia elections: if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, will there be widespread violence in Colombia?

Jun 2, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will Jean-Pierre Serre live to 100?

Mar 14, 11:14 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

79.26%chance

348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

86

Will a 20+page book "abelian shear cohomology OR sheaf theory for wordcels" be written by EOY2028?

Feb 15, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.62%chance

27

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Who will be Portugal's next permanent men's national team head coach after Roberto Martínez?

Jun 23, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Jorge Jesus

Abel Ferreira

Sérgio Conceição

Luís Freire

José Mourinho

Other

17

17

17

17

17

17

Historical figures must save on avg. the lives of x * N people to be as well-known as figures who killed N. x=?

Dec 5, 11:45 PM

30

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