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Prediction markets for Achi

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3047254

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

99

1

0

0

0

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.25%chance

10032064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

283

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

87.72%chance

718879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

26413

2905

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

Aug 4, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.14%chance

9618860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

841

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Jan 18, 10:36 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

60.15%chance

12015183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1579

504

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

219

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.09%chance

629496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

812

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

16.24%chance

203737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

229

Will Netanyahu's vision for Gaza be achieved by 2030?

Jul 25, 1:56 PMJul 24, 3:59 AM

24.15%chance

222711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

564

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

111

Will a human land on mars before ASI is achieved

Mar 28, 11:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

45%chance

21767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

907

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