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Prediction markets for Aécio Neves

Will any human who was never in a human womb reach 1 year of age before 2032?

Dec 12, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15.1%chance

513548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

748

Will Democrats nominate someone who's never run for office before for president in 2028?

Feb 7, 8:07 PMSep 1, 4:59 AM

19.61%chance

243123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

Will AI just plateau/stall and never reach full AGI/ASI level ?

Dec 21, 8:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.21%chance

201646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

903

never mind

Nov 30, 5:13 PMSep 10, 2:06 AM

6924

OptionProbability

mom

dad

you

(reiminder: pick one to die) (warning: if you pick this il treat it like you picked you)

me

43

43

9

3

2

Will there be another bachelor (never married) President before 2050?

Nov 30, 3:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.18%chance

18478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

916

Will the US Navy continue their streak of never having a nuclear accident at the end of 2026?

Jul 22, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.56%chance

10444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

468

22

The President of the United States in February 2029 will be someone who never had held elected political office prior to 2023.

Dec 10, 6:00 AMFeb 1, 6:00 AM

16.27%chance

10273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

182

What will be the first month I never cross below an M100k net worth?

Sep 4, 11:35 PMMar 31, 11:34 PM

4149

OptionProbability

October '26

November '26

December '26

March '27

January '27

February '27

Later than March '27

38

17

13

10

9

9

4

This market will never resolve.

Feb 5, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.43%chance

14125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

999

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will "The News is Never Neglected" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 7:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.71%chance

2117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

89

Will Denver never have a below-average temperature year between 2020 and 2055?

Nov 20, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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