Alas News

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

45.19%chance

3725189

OptionVotes

YES

1330

590

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Jan 12, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

233903

OptionVotes

YES

252

100

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16.84%chance

312834

OptionVotes

YES

1351

868

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Nov 18, 6:05 PMDec 18, 6:04 PM

13.29%chance

302368

OptionVotes

YES

2199

664

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

342065

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Nick Bostrom racist email

When will "Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI" reach 100%?

Mar 14, 7:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6372

OptionProbability

By the end of 2026

By October 1st 2026

By July 1st 2026

By April 1st 2026

By July 1st 2025

By October 1st 2025

By the end of 2025

What Party will win the 2026 Alaska Senate Election

Dec 29, 10:18 PMNov 4, 7:00 AM

11320

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Other

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

YES

1087

929

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

Sep 3, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.63%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

1070

935

Will the democrats win the 2026 Alabama governor election?

Feb 6, 3:42 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

6132

OptionVotes

YES

1039

710

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Oct 13, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6130

OptionProbability

Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.

Any policy

Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza

Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

May 12, 10:49 AM

330

Alas News

Prediction markets for Alas

Prediction markets for Alas

Prediction markets for Alas

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

When will "Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI" reach 100%?

What Party will win the 2026 Alaska Senate Election

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

Will the democrats win the 2026 Alabama governor election?

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

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