Alas News

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Jan 12, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.63%chance

6822026

OptionVotes

YES

9509

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?

Oct 31, 5:24 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

28.04%chance

2510812

OptionVotes

YES

2986

1427

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

352886

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Nick Bostrom racist email

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

1213

898

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Oct 13, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7133

OptionProbability

Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.

Any policy

Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza

Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy

Which party will win Alaska in the 2028 presidential election?

Nov 6, 12:34 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Republican Party

Democratic Party

Other

Who will win Alabama in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:14 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

Who will win Alaska in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:14 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

Who will win Alaska in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:14 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Other

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Who will win Alabama in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Other

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama?

Nov 5, 11:17 PMMay 17, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Katie Britt

Other

Dale Shelton Deas Jr.

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

May 12, 10:49 AM

340

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Prediction markets for Alas

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Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Which party will win Alaska in the 2028 presidential election?

Who will win Alabama in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries?

Who will win Alaska in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries?

Who will win Alaska in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries?

Who will win Alabama in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries?

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama?

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

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