Alas News

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

28.68%chance

106130975

OptionVotes

YES

1709

370

Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?

Apr 14, 2:34 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

65%chance

5127676

OptionVotes

YES

1363

734

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Jan 12, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.53%chance

4810839

OptionVotes

YES

1268

747

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

1213

898

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

342315

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nick Bostrom racist email

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Democrats win Texas, Michigan, Alaska and Maine for Senate in 2026?

Aug 7, 9:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.18%chance

222073

OptionVotes

YES

1089

880

Will SCOTUS strike down Alaska’s “$95,000 plane for 6 beers” forfeiture?

Aug 7, 3:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

83.85%chance

111811

OptionVotes

YES

2278

439

Democrats win Alaska and Michigan US Senate elections in 2026?

Aug 23, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.16%chance

201129

OptionVotes

YES

1255

797

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

Sep 3, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.4%chance

5780

OptionVotes

YES

1670

599

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Oct 13, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7133

OptionProbability

Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.

Any policy

Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza

Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy

Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2028 US Senate election in Alaska?

Sep 7, 6:56 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

55%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

May 12, 10:49 AM

340

Alas News

Prediction markets for Alas

Prediction markets for Alas

Prediction markets for Alas

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Democrats win Texas, Michigan, Alaska and Maine for Senate in 2026?

Will SCOTUS strike down Alaska’s “$95,000 plane for 6 beers” forfeiture?

Democrats win Alaska and Michigan US Senate elections in 2026?

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2028 US Senate election in Alaska?

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

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