Alas News

What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

Apr 1, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4511762

OptionProbability

MIT or Apache license

Uses Mixture of Experts

At least 30B parameters

At least 70B parameters

An instruct model is made accessible

Is a reasoning model

released in the month of August 2025

At least 20B Parameters

better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

At least 300B parameters

The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

A base model is made accessible

my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

released in the month of June 2025

released in the month of July 2025

released in September, October, November, or December 2025

At least 120B Parameters

100

Putin jokes about reclaiming Alaska during his trip?

Aug 9, 8:49 AMSep 1, 8:43 AM

18.44%chance

625056

OptionVotes

YES

2103

476

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.95%chance

312584

OptionVotes

YES

1101

926

esun wan pi toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun pi mute seme lon tenpo sike 2025?

May 11, 4:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

112287

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

331965

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

Other

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Nick Bostrom racist email

Will mackaskill criminal charges

In 2026, what will Wikipedia say was the result of the October 2023 Gaza−Israel conflict

Oct 7, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

361455

OptionProbability

"Israeli Victory" (or a coalition including Israel)

A wall of text ala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War

Other

"Inconclusive"

"______ treaty" ala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

"Uprising suppressed" ala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Intifada

"Hamas Victory" (or a coalition including Hamas)

Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of Chinese origin?

Feb 11, 3:21 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.12%chance

201021

OptionVotes

YES

1157

853

Will the Alaska 737 MAX depressurization incident substantially impact Alaska’s acquisition of Hawaiian airlines?

Jan 7, 2:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

1088

951

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

YES

1087

929

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

Sep 3, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.63%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

1070

935

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Oct 13, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6130

OptionProbability

Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.

Any policy

Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza

Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

May 12, 10:49 AM

260

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Prediction markets for Alas

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What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

Putin jokes about reclaiming Alaska during his trip?

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

esun wan pi toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun pi mute seme lon tenpo sike 2025?

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

In 2026, what will Wikipedia say was the result of the October 2023 Gaza−Israel conflict

Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of Chinese origin?

Will the Alaska 737 MAX depressurization incident substantially impact Alaska’s acquisition of Hawaiian airlines?

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

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