Alas News

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

36.15%chance

4931057

OptionVotes

YES

1516

462

Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?

Apr 14, 2:34 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

50.71%chance

3513809

OptionVotes

YES

1014

986

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Jan 12, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.57%chance

386907

OptionVotes

YES

1113

944

Will Dan J. Sullivan be on the ballot as a Republican for the US Senate Primary election in Alaska?

Jun 12, 7:33 AMAug 18, 3:00 PM

57.18%chance

103674

OptionVotes

YES

1050

961

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

1213

898

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Nov 18, 6:05 PMDec 18, 6:04 PM

13.29%chance

302368

OptionVotes

YES

2199

664

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

342315

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nick Bostrom racist email

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Will "Anthropic's Pause is the Most Expensive Alarm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 2, 7:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.38%chance

41706

OptionVotes

YES

2472

863

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

YES

1087

929

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

Sep 3, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.63%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

1070

935

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Oct 13, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6130

OptionProbability

Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.

Any policy

Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza

Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

May 12, 10:49 AM

330

Alas News

Prediction markets for Alas

Prediction markets for Alas

Prediction markets for Alas

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?

Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?

Will Dan J. Sullivan be on the ballot as a Republican for the US Senate Primary election in Alaska?

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Will "Anthropic's Pause is the Most Expensive Alarm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Will Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

sina sona ala sona e toki pona?

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