Alex Cassundé News

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

J.B. Pritzker

Cory Booker

Tim Walz

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

Raphael Warnock

Jon Ossoff

Ro Khanna

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Mark Kelly

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Jon Stewart

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Noam Shazeer

Alec Radford

Daniel Hillis

Alan Turing

Ben Goertzle

Yann LeCun

Demis Hassabis

Paul Christiano

Charles Babbage

Jürgen Schmidhuber

John Schulman

Noam Brown

Liang Wenfeng

Alex Krizhevsky

Donald Knuth

George Boole

Kaiming He

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Marvin Minsky

Judea Pearl

Raymond Solomonoff

Yoshua Bengio

Andrew Ng

Fei-Fei Li

Dario Amodei

David Silver

Andrej Karpathy

Tage Thompson scores 40+ goals in 2024-25

Tage Thompson play 75+ games with the Sabres in 2024-25

Owen Power 40+ points in 2024-25

Sabres get to round 2 of playoffs by end of 2028

Sabres reach the Stanley Cup Finals by end of 2032

Alex Tuch 70+ points in 2024-25

Rasmus Dahlin gets the Norris Trophy in 2024-2025

Sabres are 20% on the power play in 2024-25

Sabres 10+ overtime losses in 2024-25

Sabres finish with 90+ points in 2024-25

Sabres make the playoffs in 2024-25

Oscar Piastri

Max Verstappen

Lando Norris

Fernando Alonso

George Russell

Charles Leclerc

Lewis Hamilton

Other

Sergio Perez

Carlos Sainz

Alex Albon

No trophy awarded in 2026

Mark Manson

Adam M. Curry

Jaan Tallinn

Eric Czuleger

Jack Dorsey

Bryan Johnson

Liron Shapira

Andrew Bustamonte

Graham Handcock

Andrew Gallimore

Hamilton Morris

Zach De La Rocha

Audrey Tang

Scott Aaronson

Scott Alexander

Rick Rubin

Nathan Young

KRS-1

Max Tegmark

Rob Miles

Connor Leahy

Samo Burja

George Hotz

Jan Leike

Andrew Huberman

Karl Marx

David Shapiro

Tim Kennedy

Sean Carroll

Roger Penrose

Tim Ferris

Mark Laita

Chris Ramsey

David Grush

Nick Bostrom

Permendes

Pythagoras

David Chalmers

Roman Yampolskiy

Stuart Russell

Brian Armstrong

Nate Soares

Doug Lenat

Geoffrey Hinton

Nathan Labenz

Julian Dorey

Yoshua Bengio

Zvi Mowshowitz

The user @krantz

Dave Smith

David Deutsch

Ilya Sutskever

Hal Putoff

Eric Weinstein

Lex Fridman

Balaji Srinivasan

Daniel Sheehan

Daniel Hillis

Tom Campbell

Curt Jaimungal

Robin Hanson

Andrew Yang

Matthew Pines

Jesse Michels

Danny Jones

Jack Kruse

Ben Goertzle

Jake Barber

David Hume

Immanuel Kant

Ludwig Wittgenstein

Bertrand Russell

Dan Faggela

Robert Monroe

Mike Benz

Chris Bledsoe

Julian Assange

Micheal Levin

Shawn Ryan

Jeffrey Mishlove

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Steven Greer

Harald Malmgren

Noam Chomsky

Matt Beall

Avi Loeb

Robert Epstein

Narendra Modi

Jeffrey Sachs

Gary Nolan

Daryl Cooper

John McAfee

Diogenes

Daryl Davis

David Goggins

Tucker Carlson

Suchir Balaji

Alex Jones

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Bernie Sanders

Joe Rogan

Dick Cheney

Ezra Klein

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Larry Ellison

Dwarkesh Patel

Donald Trump

George Washington

Robert Kennedy Jr

Douglas Murry

Elon Musk

Palmer Luckey

Peter Tiel

Joeseph Farrell

Jeremy Corbell

Amjad Masad

Ammon Hillman

Jordan Peterson

Aaron Rodgers

Sergey Brin

Steve Kwast

Rob Reiner

Eric Prince

Andrew Tate

Alex Karp

Other

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Nick Schulman

Shaun Deeb

Martin Kabrhel

Jeremy Ausmus

Phil Hellmuth

Josh Arieh

Alex Foxen

Daniel Negreanu

Stephen Chidwick

Justin Saliba

Scott Seiver

Phil Ivey

Michael Moncek

Alex Livingston

Chance Kornuth

Chris Brewer

Nacho Barbero

Eric Wasserson

Ren Lin

Matt Glantz

Fedor Holz

Ben Heath

Joe Cada

Koray Aldemir

Dario Sammartino

Ben Lamb

Nick Petrangelo

Isaac Haxton

Erik Seidel

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Greg Brockman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Charlotte - Tim Albin

Memphis - Ryan Silverfield

Temple - K. C. Keeler

Tulane - Jon Sumrall

UAB - Trent Dilfer

Army - Jeff Monken

East Carolina - Blake Harrell

Florida Atlantic - Zach Kittley

Navy - Brian Newberry

North Texas - Eric Morris

Rice - Scott Abell

Tulsa - Tre Lamb

UTSA - Jeff Traylor

Travis Head

Marnus Labuschagne

Nathan McSweeney

Sam Konstas

Cam Green

Alex Carey

Josh Inglis

Alex Saar

Stephon Castle

Donovan Clingan

Matas Buzelis

Rob Dillingham