OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Josh Shapiro
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Andy Beshear
Gretchen Whitmer
J.B. Pritzker
Tim Walz
Cory Booker
Wes Moore
Raphael Warnock
Jon Ossoff
Mark Kelly
Ro Khanna
Ruben Gallego
None
John Fetterman
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Jeff Jackson
Jared Polis
Michelle Obama
Amy Klobuchar
Mitch Landrieu
Roy Cooper
Dianne Feinstein
Jimmy Carter
Chuck Schumer
Tim Kaine
Bernie Sanders
Tammy Duckworth
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Dwayne Johnson
[Duplicate - Invalid]
Hakeem Jeffries
Andrew Yang
Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II
Dean Phillips
Bob Ferguson
Jay Inslee
Kathy Hochul
Anthony Blinken
Susan Rice
Scott Wiener
Donald Trump
Sam Altman
Jeff Merkley
Merrick Garland
Taylor Swift
Tammy Baldwin
Katie Porter
Phil Murphy
Cenk Uygur
Mark Cuban
Jamie Raskin
Joe Manchin
Sherrod Brown
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
John Bel Edwards
Clark Duke
Stacey Abrams
Nina Turner
john smith
Jon Stewart
Duplicate ignore
Gina Raimondo
Ron Desantis
Beto O'Rourke
Vermin Supreme
Hunter Biden
Invalid answer
John Jacob
Alex Jones
Bob Roberston the IV
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Stephen A Smith
17
16
12
12
9
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
"The New Norm" ends
New James Bond actor is presented
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
A new supreme court justice appointed
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Approval < 35%
USA experiences a recession.
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
trump gets hospitalized
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Fair elections in 2028
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Vances have another kid
US national bitcoin reserve created
The US leaves the World Health Organization
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Government shutdown
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Joe Biden dies
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
A major war in Asia occurs
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Trump announces he is tired of winning
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
A national ban on gender-affirming care
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
The department of education gets desolved
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Dow rises above 65,000
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Approval < 25%
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Tesla
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Repeal obamacare
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Trump and Obama shake hands
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
54 or more Republican senate seats
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
JD Vance elected President
Trump runs for a third term
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Record level unemployment
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump gets covid (again)
Constitutional Amendment
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
New national park created
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Starship lands on Mars
10% fewer government agencies
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump dies
Trump gets shot
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump bans abortion nationwide
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
"covfefe" posted again
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
US Invasion of any North/South American country
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
John Bolton indicted
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
American Manned Lunar Landing
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New US national anthem
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Cannabis is federally legalized
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump and Melania divorce
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
Constitutional Amendment
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump loses the fake tan
A hurricane will be nuked
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
100
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68
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5
5
5
5
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4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Andrew Tate
Dylan Klebold
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
Josh Hawley
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Cersei Lannister
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Trump's attempted assassin
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Roko
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Jozef Tiso
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Thomas Midgley Jr.
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
A cockroach
Niko Bellic
Commodus
Tito
an asi agent from openai
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Vriska Serket
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Yuan Shu
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Paul Von Hindenburg
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Hunter Biden's laptop
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
JD Vance
Karl Marx
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
Mehmed V
Klaus Schwab
Sean Hannity
Rochelle Shen
Black Hat (XKCD)
King George III of England
Ada Nguyen
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Salvador Allende
Rorschach
Wario
A literal ham sandwich
goth600
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
Neville Chamberlain
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Emperor Ling of Han
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
Lex Luthor
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Bad Bunny
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
Eren Yeager
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
Stan Smith
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Justin Trudeau
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Santa Claus
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
@strutheo :)
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
100
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97
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3
1
1
1
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Steve Bannon
Eduardo Verástegui
Calin Georgescu
Harry Redknapp
David Walliams (Comedian)
Kanye West
George Simion
Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson
Tommy Robinson
Andrew Tate
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Enrique Tarrio
@Anon99
Julius Malema
Matteo Salvini
Elon Musk (again)
Tristan Tate
Paul Golding
Tucker Carlson
Alex Jones
Jacob Chansley
Calvin Robinson
Markus Persson (Notch)
Donald Trump Jr.
Michael Waltz
Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee
Pete Hegseth
Mel Gibson
Nigel Farage
Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia
Donald Trump
Marine Le Pen
Lars von Trier
Ching Hai
Robert Fico
Nicolás Maduro
Nota Baloyi
Kim Yo Jong
Glenn Greenwald
Conor McGregor
Steve Witkoff
Howard Lutnick
Cory Booker
Viktor Orban
Tulsi Gabbard
Erdoğan
Logan Paul
Jordan Bardella
Pam Bondi
JD Vance
Palmer Luckey
Larry Ellison
Caitlyn Jenner
Alex Karp
Joe Exotic
Jake Paul
Martin Shkreli
Sarah Palin
Lex Fridman
Guillaume Verdon
Piers Morgan
Aravind Srinivas
Peter Pellegrini
Alice Weidel
Dave Chappelle
Mohammed bin Salman
Narendra Modi
Owen Jones
David Holz
Giuseppe Conte
Valery Gerasimov
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Aleksandar Vučić
Nayib Bukele
Joe Rogan
Joel Kaplan
Emily Chang
Claire Boucher (Grimes)
Liv Boeree
Sam Bankman Fried
Sergey Lavrov
Marion Maréchal
Andrew Callaghan
Liang Wenfeng
Candace Owens
Mario Nawfal
Kim Dotcom
Felix Kjellberg
Alexander Lukashenko
Marco Rubio
Ghislaine Maxwell
Dwarkesh Patel
Ivanka Trump
Jiankui He
Ben Shapiro
George Hotz
Melania Trump
Jared Kushner
Javier Milei
Trey Parker
Brett Kavanaugh
Robert Downey Jr.
John Cena
Peter Thiel
Usha Vance
Liz Truss
Benjamin Netanyahu
Geert Wilders
Mark Zuckerberg
Matt Stone
Vladimir Solovyov
Ramzan Kadyrov
Amichai Chikli
J.K.Rowling
Vladimir Putin
Jeff Bezos
Xi Jinping
Rudy Giuliani
Tim Walz
Itamar Ben-Gvir
Stephen Miller
Dwayne Johnson
joe biden
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Michelle Obama
100
100
100
100
100
62
31
28
17
17
16
16
16
14
14
13
13
13
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Mark Manson
Adam M. Curry
Jaan Tallinn
Eric Czuleger
Jack Dorsey
Bryan Johnson
Liron Shapira
Andrew Bustamonte
Graham Handcock
Andrew Gallimore
Hamilton Morris
Zach De La Rocha
Audrey Tang
Scott Aaronson
Scott Alexander
Rick Rubin
Nathan Young
KRS-1
Max Tegmark
Rob Miles
Connor Leahy
Samo Burja
George Hotz
Jan Leike
Andrew Huberman
Karl Marx
David Shapiro
Tim Kennedy
Sean Carroll
Roger Penrose
Tim Ferris
Mark Laita
Chris Ramsey
David Grush
Nick Bostrom
Permendes
Pythagoras
David Chalmers
Roman Yampolskiy
Stuart Russell
Brian Armstrong
Nate Soares
Doug Lenat
Geoffrey Hinton
Nathan Labenz
Julian Dorey
Yoshua Bengio
Zvi Mowshowitz
The user @krantz
Dave Smith
David Deutsch
Ilya Sutskever
Hal Putoff
Eric Weinstein
Lex Fridman
Balaji Srinivasan
Daniel Sheehan
Daniel Hillis
Tom Campbell
Curt Jaimungal
Robin Hanson
Andrew Yang
Matthew Pines
Jesse Michels
Danny Jones
Jack Kruse
Ben Goertzle
Jake Barber
David Hume
Immanuel Kant
Ludwig Wittgenstein
Bertrand Russell
Dan Faggela
Robert Monroe
Mike Benz
Chris Bledsoe
Julian Assange
Micheal Levin
Shawn Ryan
Jeffrey Mishlove
Diogenes
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Steven Greer
Harald Malmgren
Noam Chomsky
Matt Beall
Avi Loeb
Robert Epstein
Narendra Modi
Jeffrey Sachs
Gary Nolan
Daryl Cooper
John McAfee
Daryl Davis
David Goggins
Tucker Carlson
Suchir Balaji
Alex Jones
Steven Bonell (Destiny)
Bernie Sanders
Joe Rogan
Dick Cheney
Ezra Klein
Sam Altman
Dario Amodei
Larry Ellison
Dwarkesh Patel
Donald Trump
Robert Kennedy Jr
Douglas Murry
Elon Musk
Palmer Luckey
Peter Tiel
Joeseph Farrell
Jeremy Corbell
Amjad Masad
Ammon Hillman
Andrew Tate
Jordan Peterson
Aaron Rodgers
Sergey Brin
Steve Kwast
Rob Reiner
Eric Prince
George Washington
Alex Karp
Vladimir Putin
97
96
96
96
96
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
92
92
92
92
92
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
89
89
89
88
86
86
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
82
82
82
82
82
81
81
81
81
81
81
81
80
80
80
79
77
74
73
68
66
66
66
66
66
66
63
57
57
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
17
OptionVotes
NO
YES
8622
116
OptionProbability
Tucker Carlson
Joe Rogan
Jason Calacanis
Theo Von
Dave Portnoy
Tim Pool
Elon Musk
Chamath Palihapitiya
Tulsi Gabbard
Laura Loomer
Vivek Ramaswamy
David Sacks
Alex Jones
Ben Shapiro
Marco Rubio
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Pam Bondi
Karoline Leavitt
Susie Wiles
Linda McMahon
J. D. Vance
62
57
55
55
54
45
44
42
41
41
39
38
37
32
25
24
24
18
17
14
11
OptionProbability
NO
YES
572
520
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1548
941
OptionProbability
Donald Trump (again)
Putin (again)
Vladimir Solovyov
Sergey Lavrov
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Robert Fico
Tucker Carlson
JD Vance
Victor Orban
Tulsi Gabbard
Candace Owens
Nicolás Maduro
Alex Jones
Tommy Robinson
Pete Hegseth
Marco Rubio
Nigel Farage
Elon Musk
Geert Wilders
Liz Truss
Cyril Ramaphosa
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
Erdoğan
Alice Weidel
Marine Le Pen
Palmer Luckey
Xi Jinping
George Hotz
Javier Milei
Lex Fridman
Martin Shkreli
Benjamin Netanyahu
Lindsey Graham
Sam Bankman Fried
Liv Boeree
Joel Kaplan
100
95
83
80
66
59
59
55
54
53
52
50
46
46
42
36
36
34
34
34
34
33
28
25
24
24
24
24
15
13
12
10
10
9
8
6
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
297
34
OptionVotes
YES
NO
130
96