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Alexander News

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6451

596

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11036

9044

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

555

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.72%chance

361558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

909

Will Alexander Zverev win a major before he retires?

Sep 4, 2:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.4%chance

6746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

789

Will Scott Alexander's "N" trick fail?

Jan 25, 9:33 PMJan 26, 11:59 PM

20.28%chance

16569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

949

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.07%chance

6460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

685

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Sep 23, 3:41 PMApr 2, 9:59 PM

79.9%chance

15407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

945

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.9%chance

10193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

959

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