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Prediction markets for Alexander

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11866

8858

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

65.08%chance

18841305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

733

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.71%chance

10523571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

396

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.82%chance

371628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1582

632

Will Scott Alexander's "N" trick fail?

Jan 25, 9:33 PMJan 26, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

19674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

924

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.88%chance

7560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1274

785

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Sep 23, 3:41 PMApr 2, 9:59 PM

81.12%chance

15477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

928

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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