Ali News

US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot

4 months ago

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

95382487

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?

Apr 5, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.06%chance

344277630

OptionVotes

YES

5151

118

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.63%chance

432109670

OptionVotes

YES

11029

10692

Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?

Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.42%chance

21483634

OptionVotes

YES

4454

2201

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

YES

1057

822

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

43.92%chance

72471

OptionVotes

YES

11299

8850

If Ali Khamenei is killed by EOY2025, will Israel claim credit within 3 months?

Jun 18, 8:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

162471

OptionProbability

Ali Khamenei NOT killed by EOY2025

Ali Khamenei killed by EOY2025, Israel claims credit within 3 months

Ali Khamenei killed by EOY2025, Israel does NOT claim credit within 3 months

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.2%chance

171310

OptionVotes

YES

880

113

US assassinates Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by EOY?

Jun 18, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.91%chance

141234

OptionVotes

YES

717

Will Ayaan Hirsi Ali recant from Christianity before 2026?

Nov 15, 1:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13%chance

8220

OptionVotes

YES

370

135

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

243

116

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

If Ali Khamenei is killed by EOY2025, will Israel claim credit within 3 months?

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2030?

US assassinates Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by EOY?

Will Ayaan Hirsi Ali recant from Christianity before 2026?

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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