Alibaba News

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18571891

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Google

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8616676

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Palantir

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Alibaba

Mistral

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Aug 8, 7:50 PMOct 31, 3:59 AM

5015995

OptionProbability

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

Will Jack MA return as a senior executive to Alibaba by 2026 year end?

Jan 4, 2:36 PMDec 11, 2:59 AM

9.45%chance

809276

OptionVotes

YES

8755

1504

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

11.79%chance

354112

OptionVotes

YES

2735

366

Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?

Sep 30, 4:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

292966

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Aug 31, 2:57 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

71036

OptionProbability

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-21

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-10-11

Before 2026-09-11

Before 2026-09-21

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

8362

OptionVotes

YES

136

Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026?

Aug 24, 3:24 PMSep 29, 8:00 PM

20.07%chance

3143

OptionVotes

YES

180

Will Daniel Zhang (CEO of Alibaba) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 27, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.48%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

217

Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher or lower by the end of 2033, compared to the end of 2023.

Feb 2, 5:13 AMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

231

OptionProbability

Higher

Lower

Roughly the same (-5%, +5%)

It will no longer trade

Alibaba News

Prediction markets for Alibaba

Prediction markets for Alibaba

Prediction markets for Alibaba

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Will Jack MA return as a senior executive to Alibaba by 2026 year end?

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?

Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026?

Will Daniel Zhang (CEO of Alibaba) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher or lower by the end of 2033, compared to the end of 2023.

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