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Prediction markets for Alok

will >=1/2 of people in a representative study be found to have no or minimal internal monologue?

Mar 7, 8:04 AMMar 14, 6:59 AM

19.61%chance

341445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1219

903

Will life be found in the deep biosphere of any other solar system bodies before 2035?

Oct 12, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.59%chance

61051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

24

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

Oct 29, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.53%chance

9278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

71

will an ai write knuth's next book before he does?

Mar 23, 3:31 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

36.39%chance

492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

96

Will a real alternative to EUV emerge before 2028?

Feb 3, 11:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.47%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Is Kiri's father Eywa?

Jan 25, 8:03 PMJan 25, 11:59 PM

63.97%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

118

Will we get AI before Elder Scrolls 6?

Oct 16, 3:18 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the avatar movies involve programming Pandora

Jun 23, 3:52 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Nicholas Decker or Theo jaffe or alok Singh attend an OFFICIAL PALLADIUM party in 2025

Jun 13, 6:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will cunnilingus ability be correlated with being a cat person

Jun 23, 3:55 AMAug 30, 6:59 AM

51.43%chance

13

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will Alok Singh get a girlfriend by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 1:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which year will self driving cars be at least 10% of ridership in India

Aug 18, 12:57 AMOct 18, 6:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Other

50

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