Alon News

Will China alone install over 8713 GW in 2030?

Jan 27, 7:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.98%chance

112182

OptionVotes

YES

566

151

Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone in the assassination of John F Kennedy?

Oct 26, 2:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.75%chance

18628

OptionVotes

YES

297

135

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

YES

1073

697

Will the first person to walk on Mars be alone at the time of landing?

Apr 7, 5:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.83%chance

13399

OptionVotes

YES

1354

912

Someone walks around the moon alone before 2100

Oct 19, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.74%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

162

OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026

Nov 17, 8:42 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

16.56%chance

7186

OptionVotes

YES

177

105

Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?

Jul 3, 11:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13172

OptionProbability

There will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans still believe that Oswald did not act alone.

There will not be enough new polling of this question before 2030.

There will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans now believe Oswald acted alone.

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 9:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.13%chance

6158

OptionVotes

YES

262

Will the evil spirits leave me alone in two months?

Feb 3, 3:08 PMApr 3, 3:07 PM

25.53%chance

10151

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will more than 5% of p(doom) come alone from autistic people collectively not known to de-escalate when they could have?

Sep 21, 8:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.59%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035?

Apr 20, 10:13 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

43%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

135

108

Will Uri Alon ever receive a Nobel Prize?

Nov 15, 8:51 AMNov 22, 10:59 PM

40.58%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

121

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Will China alone install over 8713 GW in 2030?

Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone in the assassination of John F Kennedy?

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Will the first person to walk on Mars be alone at the time of landing?

Someone walks around the moon alone before 2100

OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026

Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Will the evil spirits leave me alone in two months?

Will more than 5% of p(doom) come alone from autistic people collectively not known to de-escalate when they could have?

Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035?

Will Uri Alon ever receive a Nobel Prize?

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