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Prediction markets for Alon Day

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

What year will Chūō Shinkansen begin commercial operation?

Dec 8, 2:10 PMDec 15, 3:59 PM

2204

OptionProbability

Other

2034

Project cancelled

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2027

42

29

14

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will the 85th anniversary of D-Day have any living D-Day WW2 veterans show up?

Jun 18, 12:05 AMMay 25, 3:59 AM

67.09%chance

283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

70

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Jul 25, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.08%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

When will the Rio Grande Plan be completed?

Apr 24, 4:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

120

Would Alexey Guzey win a cage match/fight against Jose Luis Ricon (JLR)?

May 2, 4:10 AMDec 31, 5:10 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

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