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Top stories

Idi Amin Overthrew Milton Obote, Killed Over 150,000, Expelled Indians in 1972, Divorced Wives on Radio

Idi Amin Overthrew Milton Obote, Killed Over 150,000, Expelled Indians in 1972, Divorced Wives on Radio

Authors

3

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Amin

Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

May 8, 3:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4512887

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Praggnanandhaa R

Other

Anish Giri

Wei Yi

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

Magnus Carlsen

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Gukesh D

Arjun Erigaisi

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Alireza Firouzja

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Daniil Dubov

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

24

21

16

14

12

11

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

5710818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

352

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

May 8, 3:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

445067

OptionProbability

Gukesh D

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Praggnanandhaa R

Anish Giri

Wei Yi

Other

Magnus Carlsen

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Arjun Erigaisi

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Alireza Firouzja

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Daniil Dubov

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

41

16

13

10

8

6

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?

Oct 5, 9:51 PMDec 26, 4:59 AM

11.08%chance

233674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2660

211

If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself?

Sep 19, 12:16 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.29%chance

343291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

593

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

84.33%chance

272338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2215

512

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

892

Will Amin Aalipour (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 15, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.28%chance

10344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

156

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

15336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

949

Will Amin H. Nasser (CEO of Saudi Aramco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 13, 1:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.3%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

86

Will amino acids on Mars have the same chirality as organic Earth amino acids?

Sep 13, 12:46 AMSep 13, 12:45 AM

691

OptionProbability

No significant enantiomeric excess

L-excess, more left-handed (the same as on Earth)

L-excess, more right-handed

75

54

14

Will automated chemical synthesis produce heavy nitrogen/hydrogen versions of every amino acid >50% of sites by EOY 2025

Nov 15, 3:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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