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Prediction markets for Among

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.93%chance

764012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

1109

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

65.8%chance

464001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1386

672

Which UK parties will outperform among 16-17 year olds in the next general election?

Jul 17, 7:39 PMAug 30, 7:38 PM

223527

OptionProbability

Green

Your Party (new far left party)

Labour

Lib Dems

Reform

Conservative

79

70

59

58

42

25

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?

Feb 28, 8:35 AMMar 2, 2:59 AM

45%chance

251883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

385

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

9378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

908

What will be Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of his death? [resolves to percentage]

Feb 8, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.36%chance

12174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

982

Will diarrheal diseases be among the top 5 causes of death in children under five years old in 2025?

Jun 9, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.38%chance

10129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

976

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

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