Andrés Music News

Stage a musical 🐉

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Go on 20 dates 💌

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

NO

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

Other

Oracle

Meta

Amazon

Microsoft

X

Steve Mnuchin/Liberty Strategic Capital

Susquehanna International Group

General Atlantic

Bobby Kotick

Pershing Square Capital / Bill Ackman

Alphabet

Walmart

Apple

Snap

Netflix

Sequoia Capital

Pinterest

Ebay

Spotify

Universal music group

Reddit

Berkshire Hathaway

Nvidia

Kanye West or organisations / investors affiliated with Kanye West

Verizon

Salesforce

Disney

Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc.

Kevin O’Leary and associated investors

[RESOLVES NO [DUPLICATE]]

Virgin Group

[RESOLVES NO: https://manifold.markets/CalebW/which-company-will-buy-tiktok-resol#tahulw9u8j] - A new US publicly trade entity created to aquire it

IBM

AT&T

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Add 50g honey

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Improve the bread

it needs more salt

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Increase water by 50 g

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Swap 200ml water for milk

Bake it with your best friend.

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Replace salt with sugar

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Make the bread great again

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Replace flour with flowers

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Bake vodka into it

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Half yeast

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Play classical music while baking

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

YES

Requires a network connection

Will have a battery

Has a microphone

Has notification LEDs

Can play music from Spotify

Has a camera

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

US retail price <= $300 on launch

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

Is wearable

Has any screen

MrBeast

T-Series

Cocomelon

Sony Entertainment Television Indi

PewDiePie

Kids Diana Show

Like Nastya

WWE

Vlad and Niki

Zee Music Company

a performer is Alive today (Feb 2024) (not a backup dancer or singer, named performer)

a string instrument is played in person

band is a solo act

Audience is 10 or more people

a brass instrument is played in person

A non original cover song is played by another artist than the headline band

a rap song is performed

Bad Bunny In attendance (IN PERSON)

elon musk in attendance (IN PERSON)

backup dancers of some kind (virtual or in person)

sponsored by spacex

sponsored by spotify

sponsored by apple music

david bowie music or cover will be played

will happen 2030 or earlier

Audience is 100 or more people

band is Three or more members

a performer is Born 2030 or later

stars Taylor Swift

Do you want to answer No to this question?

Can I compose music for one of your future projects?

Example: Have you ever gone skydiving?

Example: Is there a god?