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Andrew Page News

    Prediction markets for Andrew Page

    What will be true about Brighter Shores, Andrew Gower's new MMORPG?

    Jun 2, 11:32 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    914082

    OptionProbability

    At least 10,000 concurrent players within first month of release

    Launches in Q4 2024

    Someone gets total level 9000 before Episode 5 is released

    Shut down within one year of release

    Official Linux support within a year of launch

    More than 21,272 concurrent players before Early Access ends

    Launches in Q3 2024

    After 1 month of release, Steam will list its overall reviews as "Overwhelmingly Positive" (at least 95% positive)

    There will be PvP combat at launch

    Early Access on 5th November 2024

    Out of Early Access 6 months after launch (6th May 2025)

    100

    100

    25

    15

    6

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

    Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    102436

    OptionProbability

    John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

    John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    James Comey – Former FBI Director

    James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

    John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

    Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

    Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

    Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

    Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

    Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

    Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

    Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

    Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

    Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

    John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

    Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

    Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

    Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

    Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

    Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

    Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

    Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

    Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

    Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

    Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

    Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

    James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

    Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

    Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

    Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

    Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

    Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

    Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

    Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

    Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

    Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

    Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

    Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

    Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

    Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

    Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

    Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

    Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

    Joe Biden – President of the United States

    Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

    Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

    Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

    Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

    Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

    Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

    Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

    Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

    Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

    Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

    Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

    Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

    Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

    Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

    100

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    27

    Will a bill to eliminate or defund NPR make it to the President's desk by the end of 2025?

    Apr 21, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    43.87%chance
    281633

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1215

    345

    Cerebras multimarket (all judged separately)

    Jan 30, 10:03 PMFeb 7, 7:59 AM
    4532

    OptionProbability

    IPO actually happens in 2025

    IPO actually happens in 2026

    At end of first day trading, valuation >10b

    At end of first day trading, valuation >50b

    Has over 1000 employees at IPO time.

    Out of business by mid 2027

    Is purchased by another company by mid 2028

    Officially confirmed that their chips are used by OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, with a value of at least 100m USD, by mid 2028

    +2 years from IPO, valuation is >100b

    +3 years from IPO, the CEO is still in place (from IPO time)

    The CEO Andrew Feldman has a wikipedia page active on the IPO day

    IPO actually happens in 2027

    Any of their CEOs visits the Qhite House, til mid 2027, media proof required*

    Cerebras sells a consumer product, <10k usd, in US by mid 2027

    HQ moves farther than 50 miles from sunnyvale city hall

    55

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    48

    What will Hollow Knight: Silksong's OpenCritic score be 2 weeks after release?

    Jan 2, 6:18 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM
    11243

    OptionProbability

    88-90

    91-93

    87 or less

    94-96

    97-100

    36

    23

    21

    16

    4

    Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

    Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM
    59.59%chance
    6123

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    183

    118

    Will Guyana bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

    Jan 14, 8:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    50%chance
    120

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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