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Prediction markets for Anne

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11092

3630

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3314678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13282

8380

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

35.43%chance

66790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20520

10809

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

30.83%chance

43501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13499

7975

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.79%chance

33501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12321

8650

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.23%chance

51088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10047

9953

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.02%chance

41084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10005

9995

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

8806

Will Ann Arbor Michigan have a municipal electric utility by the end of 2029?

Dec 1, 1:28 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

65%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

57

Will https://x.com/mattparlmer visit Zan Huang's new residency/"bell labs" in Ann Arbor, MI?

Aug 31, 6:52 PM

00

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