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Prediction markets for Anne

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.56%chance

298534392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5399

4087

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.09%chance

2321124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20092

4995

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3214664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13282

8380

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.1%chance

53790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17520

12743

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

45.46%chance

2751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10751

9328

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.92%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10499

9640

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.91%chance

2501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10501

9321

Will Ann Arbor Michigan have a municipal electric utility by the end of 2029?

Dec 1, 1:28 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

65%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

57

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.07%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10015

9985

Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10001

9999

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Will https://x.com/mattparlmer visit Zan Huang's new residency/"bell labs" in Ann Arbor, MI?

Aug 31, 6:52 PM

00

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