OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
mandrake root on screen
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hermione is white
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Premieres in 2026
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Zendaya is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Hermione is Indian
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Keir Starmer is in it
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Gandalf is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
97
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
91
89
88
84
83
83
83
78
78
74
74
73
70
66
65
65
65
64
60
60
59
58
55
55
55
55
52
45
43
41
41
36
34
34
33
32
32
30
30
30
29
28
27
25
25
24
22
21
20
15
15
14
13
12
12
11
11
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Bake it with your best friend.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Improve the bread
Bake for 15 more minutes
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Autolyse 20 minutes
Make the bread taste good
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Do a second rise
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Watch the video
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Make banana bread
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Add garlic
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Increase water by 50 g
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Brush on an egg wash
Make the bread great again
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
it needs more salt
Bake one more minute
Strawberry jelly filling
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Bake vegimite into it.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Half yeast
Replace salt with sugar
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Quadruple salt
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Bake vodka into it
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Add a pinch of sugar
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
87
86
85
85
82
79
78
78
78
76
76
76
73
73
71
69
69
69
65
64
63
62
62
60
58
58
57
56
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
48
47
47
45
45
44
43
43
43
42
41
40
40
40
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
27
26
26
26
26
26
24
24
24
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
15
15
14
14
13
13
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Kevin Hassett
Chris Waller
Kevin Warsh
Other
Scott Bessent
Stephen Miran
Larry Kudlow
Judy Shelton
Jim Cramer
Janet Yellen
Mary Daly
Austan Goolsbee
Susan Collins
Lisa Cook
Arthur Laffer
Andrew Hussie
76
6
5
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle
Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson
The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud
The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart
The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson
Sabriel by Garth Nix
The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle
Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson
The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster
Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card
Holes by Louis Sachar
Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate
The Witches by Roald Dahl
Small Gods by Terry Pratchett
Watership Down by Richard Adams
Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton
Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein
Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist
Airborne by Kenneth Oppel
The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones
Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury
The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy
Call of the Wild by Jack London
Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe
Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester
Mythology by Edith Hamilton
A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon
The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu
Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl
Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton
On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber
The Martian by Andy Weir
The Culture series by Iain M Banks
A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
82
82
81
76
72
65
64
61
59
59
59
55
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
45
43
36
31
29
29
0
OptionProbability
Ben Johnson
Kellen Moore
Aaron Glenn
Brian Schottenheimer
Liam Coen
Joe Brady
Robert Saleh
Ejiro Evero
Vance Joseph
Matt Nagy
Dennard Wilson
Brian Flores
Todd Monken
Lou Anarumo
Mike Kafka
Davis Webb
Arthur Smith
Steve Spagnuolo
Vic Fangio
Bobby Slowik
Leslie Frasier
Jim Schwartz
Eric Bienamy
Bill Belichick
100
100
100
100
100
71
68
55
54
53
50
50
50
48
43
40
39
35
34
30
26
26
20
13
OptionProbability
Sam Altman
Jensen Huang
Dario Amodei
Mark Zuckerberg
Elon Musk
Demis Hassabis
David Sacks
Geoffrey Hinton
Yoshua Bengio
Yann LeCun
llya Sutskever
Mira Murati
Sundar Pichai
Marc Andreessen
Andrej Karpathy
Daniel Kokotajlo
Stuart J. Russell
Arthur Mensch
Liang Wenfeng
Gary Marcus
Helen Toner
@DwarkeshPatel
Andrew Ng
John Carmack
Mustafa Suleyman
Emily Bender
Tristan Harris
Matt Shumer
Scott Alexander
Aravind Srinivas
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Francois Chollet
Pope Leo XIV
Andy Masley
Emad Mostaque
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Marques Brownlee
Zvi Mowshowitz
@KatjaGrace
Scarlett Johansson
97
95
94
90
89
87
82
80
69
67
63
60
60
59
58
57
57
55
53
52
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
41
41
39
36
33
33
31
29
27
26
23
16
8
OptionProbability
Tarcísio de Freitas
Fernando Haddad
Geraldo Alckmin
João Campos
Renato Freitas
Simone Tebet
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Romeu Zema
Rodrigo Pacheco
Janja Lula da Silva
Gusttavo Lima
Flávio Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro
André Janones
Ciro Gomes
Guilherme Boulos
Flávio Dino
Soraya Thronicke
João Doria
Tabata Amaral
Eduardo Leite
Sergio Moro
Nikolas Ferreira
Pablo Marçal
Arthur Lira
Kim Kataguiri
31
28
20
20
11
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Warsh
Someone else
Judy Shelton
Arthur Laffer
Larry Kudlow
74
10
8
4
2
2
OptionProbability
Will Bertha reach Category 1 wind speeds?
Will Arthur reach Category 1 wind speeds?
Will Cristobal reach Category 1 wind speeds?
Will Bertha reach Category 2 wind speeds?
Will Cristobal reach Category 2 wind speeds?
Will Arthur reach Category 2 wind speeds?
Will Cristobal reach Category 3 wind speeds?
Will Arthur reach Category 3 wind speeds?
Will Bertha reach Category 3 wind speeds?
Will Bertha reach Category 4 wind speeds?
Will Cristobal reach Category 4 wind speeds?
Will Arthur reach Category 4 wind speeds?
Will Cristobal reach Category 5 wind speeds?
Will Arthur reach Category 5 wind speeds?
Will Bertha reach Category 5 wind speeds?
59
55
52
50
50
48
41
39
37
31
31
20
20
4
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1013
944
OptionProbability
Critique of Pure Reason by Immanuel Kant
Work published after 2025
The World as Will and Representation by Arthur Schopenhauer
The City of God Against The Pagans by St. Augustine
Tractatus by Wittgenstein
Ethics by Baruch Spinoza
Philosophical Investigations by Ludwig Wittgenstein
Tao Te Ching by Laozi
66
59
52
48
46
44
34
34
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100
