OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Premieres in 2027
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Hermione is white
mandrake root on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A house elf is shown on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
It's woke
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
At least one of the actors is transgender
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
We get AGI before it premieres
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
Premieres in 2026
Features an explicitly transgender character
Fred and George have the same actor
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hermione is Indian
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
96
94
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
86
80
80
78
78
78
75
75
74
73
70
68
65
65
65
64
63
57
55
55
55
50
50
46
41
40
38
37
35
34
33
33
31
31
31
30
30
29
28
26
26
22
22
22
21
18
16
13
11
11
7
7
6
5
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Make the bread taste good
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Watch the video
Autolyse 20 minutes
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Bake it with your best friend.
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Use 50% whole grain flour
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Toast the bread
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Add 50g sugar
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Add a pinch of sugar
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Increase water by 50 g
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Improve the bread
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
it needs more salt
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Half yeast
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Add 2g? of baking soda
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
put butter into it
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Bake one more minute
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Quadruple salt
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Bake vodka into it
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Replace flour with flowers
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Make the bread great again
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Double oven temperature
Halve oven temperature
Play classical music while baking
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Bake your social security number into it.
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Bake in rectangular tin
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake the bread with love
92
90
88
85
85
80
72
70
70
67
66
65
64
63
62
62
59
58
52
52
52
51
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
47
46
42
42
41
41
40
38
37
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
31
31
28
27
26
26
24
24
24
23
22
20
20
20
19
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
14
13
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (1)
🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz (2)
🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (6)
🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev (3)
🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz (4)
🇬🇧 Jack Draper (5)
🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur (12)
🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev (14)
🇺🇸 Tommy Paul (16)
🇩🇰 Holger Rune (8)
🇺🇸 Ben Shelton (9)
🇮🇹 Lorenzo Musetti (7)
🇳🇴 Casper Ruud (13)
🇨🇿 Jakub Mensik (18)
🇫🇷 Arthur Fils (15)
🇷🇺 Andrey Rublev (10)
🇺🇸 Frances Tiafoe (11)
🇷🇺 Karen Khachanov (17)
🇮🇹 Flavio Cobolli (19)
🇦🇷 Francisco Cerundolo (20)
🇧🇬 Grigor Dimitrov (21)
78
60
45
40
32
27
14
12
10
9
8
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
5
5
0
OptionProbability
The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle
Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson
The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud
The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart
The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson
Sabriel by Garth Nix
The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster
Holes by Louis Sachar
Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card
Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson
Small Gods by Terry Pratchett
Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate
Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein
The Witches by Roald Dahl
Call of the Wild by Jack London
Watership Down by Richard Adams
The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle
Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury
The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy
The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones
Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton
Airborne by Kenneth Oppel
Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe
Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester
Mythology by Edith Hamilton
A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon
The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu
Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl
Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist
Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton
The Martian by Andy Weir
The Culture series by Iain M Banks
On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber
A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
86
85
84
82
81
80
80
70
70
65
61
59
55
55
54
54
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
37
34
31
0
OptionProbability
Ben Johnson
Kellen Moore
Aaron Glenn
Brian Schottenheimer
Liam Coen
Joe Brady
Ejiro Evero
Robert Saleh
Dennard Wilson
Brian Flores
Todd Monken
Mike Kafka
Davis Webb
Matt Nagy
Arthur Smith
Vance Joseph
Steve Spagnuolo
Vic Fangio
Bobby Slowik
Lou Anarumo
Leslie Frasier
Jim Schwartz
Eric Bienamy
Bill Belichick
100
100
100
100
100
64
62
61
55
55
55
48
45
43
43
42
39
38
35
33
29
29
22
20
OptionProbability
Tarcísio de Freitas
Fernando Haddad
Geraldo Alckmin
João Campos
Renato Freitas
Simone Tebet
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Romeu Zema
Rodrigo Pacheco
Janja Lula da Silva
Gusttavo Lima
Flávio Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro
André Janones
Ciro Gomes
Guilherme Boulos
Flávio Dino
Soraya Thronicke
João Doria
Tabata Amaral
Eduardo Leite
Sergio Moro
Nikolas Ferreira
Pablo Marçal
Arthur Lira
Kim Kataguiri
29
28
20
20
11
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
Sam Altman
Liang Wenfeng
Mark Zuckerberg
Jensen Huang
Dario Amodei
Demis Hassabis
Geoffrey Hinton
Daniel Kokotajlo
Elon Musk
Sundar Pichai
Marc Andreessen
@DwarkeshPatel
Yann LeCun
Mira Murati
Aravind Srinivas
Stewart Russell
Andrew Ng
Arthur Mensch
llya Sutskever
Yoshua Bengio
David Sacks
Andrej Karpathy
Eliezer Yudkowsky
John Carmack
Marques Brownlee
Francois Chollet
@KatjaGrace
Helen Toner
Matt Shumer
Zvi Mowshowitz
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Emad Mostaque
Scarlett Johansson
98
97
96
96
95
94
91
90
87
86
76
73
73
67
66
63
63
61
55
50
48
40
34
31
25
25
23
22
18
17
13
10
6
OptionProbability
Chris Waller
Other
Kevin Warsh
Judy Shelton
Scott Bessent
Kevin Hassett
Stephen Miran
Larry Kudlow
Arthur Laffer
Mary Daly
Austan Goolsbee
Susan Collins
Lisa Cook
Jim Cramer
Andrew Hussie
22
14
11
11
11
8
7
6
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Kevin Warsh
Someone else
Kevin Hassett
Larry Kudlow
Judy Shelton
Arthur Laffer
30
19
15
15
14
8
OptionProbability
Girmay Zahilay
Claudia Balducci
Other
John Arthur Wilson
46
45
6
2
OptionProbability
Critique of Pure Reason by Immanuel Kant
The World as Will and Representation by Arthur Schopenhauer
The City of God Against The Pagans by St. Augustine
Tractatus by Wittgenstein
Ethics by Baruch Spinoza
Philosophical Investigations by Ludwig Wittgenstein
Tao Te Ching by Laozi
66
52
48
46
44
34
34
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100