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Prediction markets for Asness

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.49%chance

25612232999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10617

2119

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

751337522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6901

3283

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

23.6%chance

20393232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9386

6003

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.34%chance

21053727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3220

1309

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.82%chance

9543935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

920

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75.18%chance

13633944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10380

7638

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.33%chance

10228118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10538

1099

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.88%chance

2319497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27247

3675

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.52%chance

3213321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6849

490

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

199346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10014

9986

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

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