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Prediction markets for Asness

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.62%chance

26572370982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13270

1532

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

27.76%chance

776387921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3551

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

36.42%chance

21294857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7340

6190

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

21358835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5411

1075

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.89%chance

9744005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

982

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14134332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.91%chance

2532952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39927

2508

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

45%chance

10318710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

132

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

3.06%chance

3514400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5925

516

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

50.18%chance

209396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10036

9965

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

13402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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