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Prediction markets for Asness

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94%chance

27152548833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19680

863

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.29%chance

788398248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6415

3447

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

219107722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16296

4599

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.86%chance

21461877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8541

905

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

787

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62%chance

8742716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

520

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.22%chance

2536412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38868

2576

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

48%chance

10319010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

142

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

59.54%chance

3215777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12130

8244

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

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