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Prediction markets for Au

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

162128790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11055

9045

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Sep 15, 6:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.24%chance

4744901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32085

5111

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

5837870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32549

4033

Treasury shuts off Congressionally authorized payments to Department of Education by December 31, 2025

Feb 4, 4:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.15%chance

3235132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25336

2901

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.33%chance

11621255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5123

1149

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

80.48%chance

1919140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20302

4926

JM Revised 2025 Rhodium total secondary supply estimate (automotive recycling) to exceed 303 koz?

Aug 13, 12:53 PMDec 25, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

106693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13076

7648

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.78%chance

182110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10777

9293

Will Celestine Au (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 23, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

5163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Solar gravitational lens at 542 AU to image exoplanets by EOY 2055?

Mar 31, 5:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.98%chance

3103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

89

Will CNSA's Interstellar Express probe reach 100 AU from the sun by 2055?

Sep 17, 2:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

In 2030, where will Irish electricity prices rank among comparable countries [AU, FI, DK, IE, NL, EE, GB, CH, SG]?

Apr 10, 8:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

100

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