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Prediction markets for Aude

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.19%chance

5529670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24349

5000

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will Stephen Fry be the narrator for the "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" audiobook?

May 19, 4:42 AMSep 17, 4:39 AM

30.26%chance

251908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1518

659

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Will the Audi works Formula 1 team win a Grand Prix in 2026, its first season?

Jun 11, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.1%chance

181358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

533

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.55%chance

341302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

902

Will an album using synthetic audio be my favorite album of 2025?

Dec 19, 5:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.49%chance

5579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

694

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

40.61%chance

17410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?

Dec 29, 7:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90.3%chance

13346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1275

940

Will "Clarifying METR's Auditing Role" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 14, 5:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.57%chance

2320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

956

What will the Eastern section of Melbourne's Suburban Rail Loop Cost? ($AUD Billions)

Dec 5, 10:32 AMDec 31, 1:00 PM

30.66%chance

390

OptionProbability

YES

NO

324

273

Will "Towards Alignment Auditing as a Numbers-Go-Up..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 6, 5:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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