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Prediction markets for Austin

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.1%chance

7847516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1889

1308

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Apr 18, 11:18 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

94.79%chance

3629784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4265

234

Will @Austin ever be a billionaire?

Nov 14, 5:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.2%chance

4328681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

898

If @Austin's wife or child died, would he cry?

Aug 26, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

232019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

952

University of Austin renames itself before 2030?

Apr 18, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.37%chance

71966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

583

Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?

Mar 26, 5:33 PMMar 26, 11:59 PM

95.49%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

891

Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?

Jan 18, 5:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.8%chance

19953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

891

UnflavoredChips (Austin) Stock

Mar 3, 12:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.54%chance

17874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?

Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.09%chance

2373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

https://x.com/strangestloop will move from austin to the bay

Feb 15, 1:09 AMFeb 14, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Austin Shao be hired for Atomic Semi (https://atomicsemi.com/ ) before 2027?

Mar 26, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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