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Prediction markets for Austin

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

7647173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

1257

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Sep 15, 6:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.15%chance

4745151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32335

5089

Will @Austin ever be a billionaire?

Nov 14, 5:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.14%chance

4228680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

897

Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025

Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.23%chance

276683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3880

258

If @Austin's wife or child died, would he cry?

Aug 26, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

232019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

952

University of Austin renames itself before 2030?

Apr 18, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.72%chance

61956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Apr 18, 11:18 PMJun 2, 12:59 AM

69.37%chance

131293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

664

Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?

Mar 26, 5:33 PMMar 26, 11:59 PM

95.49%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

891

Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?

Jan 18, 5:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.8%chance

19953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

891

UnflavoredChips (Austin) Stock

Mar 3, 12:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.54%chance

17874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 8:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.3%chance

18545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

947

Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?

Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.09%chance

2373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

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