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Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.

Oct 9, 9:21 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

212089

OptionProbability

Stay about the same (>= 0.83 && <= 0.87)

Decrease slightly (>= 0.78 && <= 0.82)

Decrease significantly (>= 0.73 && <= 0.77)

Decrease extremely (<= 0.67)

Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72)

Increase (>= 0.88)

28

24

21

13

10

5

Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)

Nov 26, 9:35 PMDec 3, 10:59 PM

4.16%chance

14857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

480

21

Will Shanks and Luffy meet at Elbaf?

Aug 23, 10:51 AMNov 30, 10:59 PM

70%chance

13636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?

Jan 2, 9:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9270

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

Later than 2033 or never

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

31

26

12

10

7

3

3

3

3

3

Did Kuina die from falling down the stairs?

Jan 10, 3:24 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

84.09%chance

6149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

43

Who, if anyone, will emerge as an authoritarian leader figure in the Martian Revolution or its immediate aftermath?

Jan 31, 11:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5141

OptionProbability

No authoritarian leader emerges

Axel Cartwright

Alexandra Claire

Mabel Dore

Booth Gonzalez

Other

55

9

9

9

9

9

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Classic Physique class)

Oct 29, 9:22 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Mike SommerField

Other

Urs Kalecinski

Breon Ansley

Ramon Rocha Queiroz

Jose Manuel Munoz

Michael Daboul

Wesley Vissers

Niall Darwen

Keone Pearson

26

19

14

11

9

4

4

4

4

4

Will the Pokemon Firered/leaftgreen Elite 4 Round 2 speedrun WR go below 3h 26m before 2028?

Aug 6, 9:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.15%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

[Holostars English -Tempus-] Which talent will leave Hololive last?

Jan 24, 8:41 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Regis Altare

Axel Syrios

Gavis Bettel

Machina X Flayon

Banzoin Hakka

Josuiji Shinri

31

14

14

14

14

14

2028 Republican nominee's public opinion on 2020 election rigging?

Nov 12, 11:41 AMMar 12, 10:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Believes the election was rigged like Trump

Vague

Believes the election was fair (about as fair as other US elections)

36

36

28

Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Open class)

Oct 25, 8:25 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

27

OptionProbability

Samson Dauda

Hadi Choopan

Other

Derek Lunsford

Martin Fitzwater

Chinendu Obiekea (Andrew Jacked)

Hunter Labrada

William Bonac

Brandon Curry

Nick Walker

17

17

11

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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