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Prediction markets for Back

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

Jan 20, 7:14 PMDec 20, 10:59 AM

12.58%chance

28676353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2637

380

Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.15%chance

5426609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

89

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.89%chance

17425268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11948

9070

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8721359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

1073

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJun 15, 6:59 AM

96.06%chance

6911283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6548

216

Will Big mom and/or Kaido come back?(ends 1/1/2026)

May 16, 10:30 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

35.43%chance

708411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

367

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2050?

Oct 30, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

1066584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2853

1798

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.76%chance

836178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1135

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?

Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.53%chance

41186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3011

2751

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52%chance

10704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

1156

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