Balan News

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

240346165

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.39%chance

7429297

OptionVotes

YES

6393

156

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 15, 10:37 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

5723229

OptionProbability

Democratic House, Republican Senate

Democratic House and Senate

Republican House and Senate

Republican House, Democratic Senate

Other

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?

Dec 22, 5:56 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.61%chance

3914887

OptionVotes

YES

6105

164

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

103739

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

1092

887

Balance of power after the 2028 elections

Mar 20, 12:26 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

21738

OptionProbability

Democrat trifecta

Republican trifecta

Democrats win Presidency and House, Republicans win Senate

Democrat wins Presidency, Republicans win Senate and House

Republican wins Presidency and Senate, Democrats win House

Republican wins Presidency, Democrats win Senate and House

Democrats win Presidency and Senate, Republicans win House

Republican wins Presidency and House, Democrats win Senate

Will the balance of power in the Supreme Court switch to the democrats before more seats are added to the Supreme Court

Mar 30, 12:02 PMDec 7, 4:59 AM

27.92%chance

16675

OptionVotes

YES

1416

780

Are there infinitely many balanced primes?

Oct 19, 2:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.24%chance

6537

OptionVotes

YES

471

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2025?

Jan 4, 9:03 PMJan 1, 8:57 PM

16.6%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

224

Will Winston Peters hold the balance of power in the next election?

Jun 20, 12:35 AMOct 31, 10:59 AM

50.25%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

1005

995

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Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Balance of power after the 2028 elections

Will the balance of power in the Supreme Court switch to the democrats before more seats are added to the Supreme Court

Are there infinitely many balanced primes?

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2025?

Will Winston Peters hold the balance of power in the next election?

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