Balan News

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149199097

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4.28%chance

6819633

OptionVotes

YES

4730

211

Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?

Dec 22, 5:56 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.58%chance

3714824

OptionVotes

YES

6140

163

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 15, 10:37 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

317768

OptionProbability

Democratic House, Republican Senate

Democratic House and Senate

Republican House and Senate

Republican House, Democratic Senate

Other

What month will limit orders allow you to sell shares properly at low balance?

Aug 18, 4:23 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

145933

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2025

Dec 2025

May 2025

Jun 2025

Jul 2025

Aug 2025

Sep 2025

Oct 2025

Nov 2025

Aug 2023

Sep 2023

Oct 2023

Nov 2023

Dec 2023

Jan 2024

Feb 2024

Mar 2024

Apr 2024

May 2024

Jun 2024

Jul 2024

Aug 2024

Sep 2024

Oct 2024

Nov 2024

Dec 2024

Jan 2025

Feb 2025

Mar 2025

Apr 2025

Other

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

93239

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

1092

887

Balance of power after the 2028 elections

Mar 20, 12:26 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

15324

OptionProbability

Democrat trifecta

Republican trifecta

Democrats win Presidency and House, Republicans win Senate

Democrat wins Presidency, Republicans win Senate and House

Republican wins Presidency and Senate, Democrats win House

Republican wins Presidency, Democrats win Senate and House

Democrats win Presidency and Senate, Republicans win House

Republican wins Presidency and House, Democrats win Senate

Will the balance of power in the Supreme Court switch to the democrats before more seats are added to the Supreme Court

Mar 30, 12:02 PMDec 7, 4:59 AM

40.54%chance

15275

OptionVotes

YES

1016

985

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2025?

Jan 4, 9:03 PMJan 1, 8:57 PM

15.44%chance

8134

OptionVotes

YES

234

Will Winston Peters hold the balance of power in the next election?

Jun 20, 12:35 AMOct 31, 10:59 AM

50%chance

210

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Balan News

Prediction markets for Balan

Prediction markets for Balan

Prediction markets for Balan

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

What month will limit orders allow you to sell shares properly at low balance?

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Balance of power after the 2028 elections

Will the balance of power in the Supreme Court switch to the democrats before more seats are added to the Supreme Court

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2025?

Will Winston Peters hold the balance of power in the next election?

Latest stories