Barak News

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69101750

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Other

Christine Pelosi

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Will there be a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal before September 2025?

Jul 28, 3:04 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

16.34%chance

281663

OptionVotes

YES

2263

442

Will a company by @barak raise 2mil before the end of 2025?

Mar 17, 1:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.18%chance

11702

OptionVotes

YES

698

At what market cap will Mos exit?

Aug 31, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.78%chance

8594

OptionProbability

YES

1312

272

At what market cap will Manifold Markets exit?

Aug 31, 7:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.86%chance

21426

OptionProbability

YES

2292

2135

At what market cap will Carta exit for?

Jan 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 6:16 AM

9424

OptionProbability

$1B-$5B

$5B-$8.5B

$0-$200M

$200-$1B

$8.5B-$12B

$12B-$18B

$18B-$30B

>$30B

At what market cap will Notion exit?

Aug 31, 7:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.94%chance

10350

OptionProbability

YES

1230

1150

When will I first have a private conversation with one of: @MatthewYglesias, Agnes Callard, or Ezra Klein?

Jan 12, 5:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2100

OptionProbability

By 2024-12-31

By 2024-01-20

By 2024-02-20

By 2024-06-30

By 2029-12-31

Later, but in two of our lifetimes

Never

By 2024-01-12

What will be true of my cell phone usage until 2030?

Jan 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

598

OptionProbability

Every 7-day period, I will use and carry around an Android device capable of making phone calls.

I will use a non-phone smart device more than an Android phone on at least one 7-day period.

I will use an iPhone more than an Android phone on at least one 7-day period.

At what market cap will Cruise exit?

Sep 6, 8:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

597

OptionProbability

YES

184

At what market cap will Retool exit?

Aug 31, 7:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.36%chance

681

OptionProbability

YES

1145

1003

At what market cap will spellbound.io exit?

Oct 21, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.71%chance

220

OptionProbability

YES

160

Barak News

Prediction markets for Barak

Prediction markets for Barak

Prediction markets for Barak

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Will there be a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal before September 2025?

Will a company by @barak raise 2mil before the end of 2025?

At what market cap will Mos exit?

At what market cap will Manifold Markets exit?

At what market cap will Carta exit for?

At what market cap will Notion exit?

When will I first have a private conversation with one of: @MatthewYglesias, Agnes Callard, or Ezra Klein?

What will be true of my cell phone usage until 2030?

At what market cap will Cruise exit?

At what market cap will Retool exit?

At what market cap will spellbound.io exit?

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