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Prediction markets for Bas

am i fucked (will a CT scan show calcification in my basal ganglia)

Jul 22, 9:06 PMOct 21, 8:44 PM

3.44%chance

326298830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52952

1889

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

7%chance

5392340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

815

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.83%chance

33080982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

997

"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?

Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM

10.01%chance

13058092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29977

3336

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?

Apr 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.95%chance

907908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1967

1231

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

21.13%chance

565495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.65%chance

625231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3906

1917

In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?

Jun 9, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.48%chance

193143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Bastiat stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 6:30 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

131264

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1124

959

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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