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Prediction markets for Batt

"One Battle After Another" wins Best Picture?

Oct 4, 12:37 AMMar 14, 10:59 PM

71.01%chance

5753455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10742

6885

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

Jan 6, 2:16 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.04%chance

2936477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29946

3344

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.42%chance

5313221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

603

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 3:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

5.95%chance

16313147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

735

Will the iPhone be sold in the EU with a user-replaceable battery by 2027?

Jun 16, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.7%chance

646012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

513

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

833042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

1300

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

Will Valve announce a wearable, battery powered gaming PC?

Feb 15, 9:48 PMApr 9, 11:59 AM

43.19%chance

211000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

694

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

65.02%chance

8737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

733

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?

Jun 21, 3:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.19%chance

18415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

939

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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