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Prediction markets for Becker

Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?

Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM

42.82%chance

2713342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

865

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

89.68%chance

473299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2270

742

On which dates will I be employed by Qally's?

Mar 5, 12:09 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

52398

OptionProbability

May 1st 2024

September 1st 2024

January 1st 2025

May 1st 2025

September 1st 2025

January 1st 2026

May 1st 2026

September 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

100

100

99

90

86

78

69

63

54

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

84%chance

222092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

100

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Who will be the next #1 Manifold trader to hit zero?

Jan 26, 9:38 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

5173

OptionProbability

Other

@MarcusAbramovitch

@jack

@Preen

83

8

4

4

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