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Prediction markets for Becker

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

90.33%chance

463285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2396

728

On which dates will I be employed by Qally's?

Mar 5, 12:09 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

52398

OptionProbability

May 1st 2024

September 1st 2024

January 1st 2025

May 1st 2025

September 1st 2025

January 1st 2026

May 1st 2026

September 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

100

100

99

90

86

78

69

63

54

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

74.85%chance

211778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

156

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will @saulmunn beat me at sock wrestling in 2025?

Jan 8, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.94%chance

8648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Who will be the next #1 Manifold trader to hit zero?

Jan 26, 9:38 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

5173

OptionProbability

Other

@MarcusAbramovitch

@jack

@Preen

83

8

4

4

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