Bening News
Prediction markets for Bening
Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?
Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM
72.12%chance
202561
OptionVotes
1105
860
Will a law be enacted by Dec. 2025 that revokes lifetime benefits for former U.S. Presidents convicted of a felony?
Sep 17, 6:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.1%chance
142401
OptionVotes
3369
297
In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
Dec 13, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
72.53%chance
331443
OptionVotes
1075
699
🎬Who will win an Oscar before the end of their career? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 10, 7:14 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM
231335
OptionProbability
100
100
91
84
80
73
69
67
62
59
59
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
34
34
34
27
27
22
4
Is there a hidden extraterrestrial facility beneath Pine Gap in Australia?
Sep 14, 12:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
1%chance
7995
OptionVotes
995
10
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM
46.74%chance
14929
OptionVotes
1068
937
OptionProbability
10
7
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
998
906
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.27%chance
15274
OptionVotes
1004
994
In 100 years, will Cancel Culture be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
Dec 13, 6:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.7%chance
11235
OptionVotes
1125
957
Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?
Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.16%chance
896
OptionVotes
112
89
Will "Maybe Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust is ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 27, 10:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.34%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992