OptionProbability
Other
Steve Scalise (current Republican Majority Leader, previous Speaker-Elect)
Jim Jordan (Previous Republican Speaker-Elect)
Mike Johnson Again (after being removed from power, then put back in power)
Elise Stefanik (Republican Conference Chairman)
Tom Emmer (Republican Whip, previous Speaker-Elect)
Byron Donalds (Previous Speaker contender)
Gary Palmer (Republican Policy Committee Chairman, Previous Speaker contender)
Kevin Hern (Previous Speaker contender)
Jack Bergman (Previous Speaker contender)
Austin Scott (Previous Speaker contender)
Chuck Fleischmann (Previous Speaker contender)
Mark Green (Previous Speaker contender)
Roger Williams (Previous Speaker contender)
Jodey Arrington (Previous Speaker contender)
Tom Cole (Chair of the House Rules Committee)
Donald Trump (Republican Candidate for President)
Patrick McHenry (Previous Republican Speaker pro tempore)
Kevin McCarthy (Previous Republican Speaker)
51
16
10
6
3
2
1
0
Rethink Priorities
Arthropoda Foundation
Shrimp Welfare Initiative
Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)
Long-term Future Fund
Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Insect Welfare Research Society
Center on Long-Term Risk
Lightcone Infrastructure
Fish Welfare Initiative
Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)
Center for Reducing Suffering
The Humane League
Center for the Governance of AI
Holly Elmore / Pause AI
Rethink Probabilities
GiveWell
Patient Philanthropy Fund
NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program
Sentience Institute
Centre for Long-Term Resilience
Centre for Effective Altruism
Qualia Research Institute
Longview Emerging Challenges Fund
ALLFED
21
14
12
8
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1289
905
Josh D’Amaro
Robert Iger
Dana Walden
Alan Bergman
Jimmy Pitaro
91
4
Before humanity colonizes the universe, we must ensure that the future we would build is one worth living in.
Digital minds research is an important and neglected approach to AI safety.
Fun Fact: If you put “fun fact” before a completely made up statement, people are 69% more likely to believe it.
Past-you may have been a willing and enthusiastic sacrifice to present-you, and assuming you'll remain wiser, it was a worthwhile trade.
It's a good idea to buy lots of Microsoft stock right now
It's a good idea to short lots of Microsoft stock right now
Capitalism will collapse in 2026
If you sacrificed what you valued the most in order to survive, then from viewpoint of past-you you-present are already as good as dead
Stop seeking wisdom on a troll website founded to embezzle money
43
35