Bernardo Bátiz Vázquez News

Mexico's TEPJF Ratifies Tribunal de Disciplina Judicial Election Validity Despite 'Acordeones' Claims, Including Maya García and Bátiz Vázquez

7 months ago

Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?

Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.2%chance

171865

OptionVotes

YES

1074

949

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

1960

387

Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?

Nov 12, 5:42 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

40.84%chance

181410

OptionVotes

YES

1030

938

Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?

Jul 8, 12:38 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

13.42%chance

141199

OptionVotes

YES

1271

903

Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?

Jul 8, 11:11 AMOct 6, 2:59 AM

85.22%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

305

How many of the original options in the "Brazilian Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market" will I resolve as YES?

Jun 23, 7:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

2297

OptionProbability

4-7

8-11

12-15

20-23

16-19

24-27

0-3

Additional withdrawal notifications to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court before the end of the decade

May 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

2.2%chance

6234

OptionProbability

YES

492

362

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?

Jul 8, 10:15 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

6167

OptionProbability

Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises

Venezuela

Other

Haiti

Brazil

Dominican Republic

Peru

Argentina

Bahamas

Ecuador

Panama

Suriname

Will Brazilian Congress pass any income tax reform until the end of 2027?

Jul 29, 11:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

72.05%chance

8129

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will Partido Progressista have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?

Jul 8, 12:34 PMJun 1, 2:59 AM

27.5%chance

594

OptionVotes

YES

141

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

15.45%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

178

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Mexico
Politics
World
Mexico's TEPJF Ratifies Tribunal de Disciplina Judicial Election Validity Despite 'Acordeones' Claims, Including Maya García and Bátiz Vázquez
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7 months ago

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Bernardo Bátiz Vázquez News

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Prediction markets for Bernardo Bátiz Vázquez

Prediction markets for Bernardo Bátiz Vázquez

Prediction markets for Bernardo Bátiz Vázquez

Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?

Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?

Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?

How many of the original options in the "Brazilian Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market" will I resolve as YES?

Additional withdrawal notifications to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court before the end of the decade

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?

Will Brazilian Congress pass any income tax reform until the end of 2027?

Will Partido Progressista have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?

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How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?