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Beyer News

    Prediction markets for Beyer

    What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

    Apr 1, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4511762

    OptionProbability

    MIT or Apache license

    Uses Mixture of Experts

    At least 30B parameters

    At least 70B parameters

    An instruct model is made accessible

    Is a reasoning model

    released in the month of August 2025

    At least 20B Parameters

    better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

    Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

    Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

    At least 300B parameters

    The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

    A base model is made accessible

    my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

    Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

    Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

    released in the month of June 2025

    released in the month of July 2025

    released in September, October, November, or December 2025

    At least 120B Parameters

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    59

    27

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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