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Prediction markets for Big
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
70.28%chance
24111761080
OptionVotes
9106
2645
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?
Jan 19, 5:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
53.29%chance
7835768
OptionVotes
2327
929
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
30.12%chance
1398607
OptionVotes
3286
1999
OptionVotes
1154
641
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.07%chance
1298015
OptionVotes
1846
1470
Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029
Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
42%chance
62029
OptionVotes
11755
8505
Will the Big Taping Truth Trial detect a significant (p<0.05) result in any of the primary outcome measures?
Mar 15, 3:07 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
39.2%chance
101975
OptionVotes
3251
2074
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
57.53%chance
391946
OptionVotes
1165
674
END TIMES! new amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse by mid 2027
Jan 2, 5:31 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM
27.31%chance
91326
OptionVotes
1631
613
Will it be revealed that Big Mom is still alive before the end of One Piece?
Mar 22, 9:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.09%chance
171182
OptionVotes
1184
674
Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?
Sep 22, 11:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
29.96%chance
21518
OptionVotes
1022
926
Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.44%chance
12280
OptionVotes
1019
977