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Prediction markets for Biolos

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

Aug 4, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.95%chance

9218726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

912

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.33%chance

438578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

825

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Feb 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.38%chance

236988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

357

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6%chance

315805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

734

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.05%chance

303314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

597

By the end of 2045, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally?

Mar 27, 1:03 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.09%chance

292400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

910

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will a synthetic biological intelligence system be developed that can match the intelligence of a bumblebee by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:53 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

48.91%chance

14675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?

Jun 25, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.14%chance

13569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

932

Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing

Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

55.22%chance

22530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

931

If biological humans still exist in 2100, the majority of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past

Jan 29, 4:38 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

68.28%chance

14348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

954

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