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Prediction markets for Blank

Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?

Nov 3, 6:08 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

25%chance

14019563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3527

720

Will GitHub implement a blanket ban on voice cloning projects before 2026?

Jun 2, 5:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

9.78%chance

263095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3038

329

Musk v Mosk: Is Tesla an Enron-style fraud?

May 3, 2:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.08%chance

172434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2878

785

Is jail programmed for Drew Pavlou in 2025?

Jul 28, 6:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.57%chance

161823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

457

22

When will Tesla Cybertruck be available in Europe?

Dec 4, 9:20 AMDec 12, 10:59 PM

11814

OptionProbability

Never

Other

2027

2026

2025

2024

64

11

10

9

5

1

Will the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission approve Oklo's license application for a nuclear reactor before January 2028?

Apr 23, 6:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.79%chance

9571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

175

Will there be a blanket ban on nicotine usage in any US state before 2033?

Oct 21, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.84%chance

7109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

86

Will Nootropics Depot ever sell piracetam again?

Oct 16, 2:38 AMOct 23, 5:59 AM

50.3%chance

999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

164

How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?

Nov 10, 12:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

746

OptionProbability

Euclid's Proof

Saidak's proof by construction

Erdős's Proof

Furstenburg's Topological Proof

Euler's Proof

Proof via inclusion–exclusion

Proof using de Polignac's formula

The incompressibility method / Information-theoretic

42

40

5

4

2

2

2

2

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