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Prediction markets for Block

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33318

3293

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

82515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

62

Will Plutus.it (Block Code Ltd) go out of business before 2026?

Oct 10, 8:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.01%chance

32348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

734

Will SLS Block 1B or SLS Block 2 ever be launched?

Mar 1, 6:38 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

24.82%chance

182332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

390

Supreme Court rules unanimously to uphold Federal Judge's block on Trump's use of Alien Enemies Act

Mar 18, 2:40 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

14.21%chance

321952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

What will be the outcome of Chloe Happe's lawsuit (aka @bronzeageshawty) against Block that is funded by X?

Mar 29, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

161468

OptionProbability

They settle and it's considered a win for Chloe

Block wins

Chloe Happe wins

They settle and it's not considered a win for either

They settle and it's considered a win for Block

40

34

19

11

7

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

916

Will any country block themselves from the internet before 2027?

Oct 16, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.38%chance

12713

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

849

Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2025

Jun 19, 3:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11202

OptionProbability

JD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social)

Other

Jesse Singal (@jessesingal.com)

Brianna Wu (@brianna.bsky.social)

70

20

7

3

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.31%chance

1198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

997

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