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Prediction markets for Block

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will SLS Block 1B or SLS Block 2 ever be launched?

Mar 1, 6:38 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

28.71%chance

192382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

440

Will any country block themselves from the internet before 2027?

Oct 16, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.55%chance

162025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2439

434

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Bitcoin: What will come first - block #1,000,000 or price $1,000,000?

Jan 18, 11:49 AMJul 31, 9:59 PM

11449

OptionProbability

#1,000,000 block

$1,000,000 price

98

2

Will Joshua Block die before 2030?

Apr 7, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.95%chance

7214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

51

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.31%chance

1198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

997

Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 10 year block on joining NATO or EU?

Nov 10, 4:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.38%chance

682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.59%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

350

OptionProbability

Jesse Singal (@jessesingal.com)

Other

Go4Know (@go4know.com)

Now Breezing (@nowbreezing.ntw.app)

37

28

27

9

Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 8:53 AMJan 1, 7:00 AM

434

OptionProbability

JD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social)

Other

The White House (@whitehouse-47.bsky.social)

51

30

18

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