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Prediction markets for Bloom

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204403

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Philipp Markolin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

76

74

72

66

61

50

45

40

33

27

14

13

10

9

8

7

3

1

Flowers Stock (permanent)

Aug 21, 5:58 PM

52273

OptionProbability

NO

YES

143

70

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.99%chance

23555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

931

Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 9, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.05%chance

12358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

928

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.52%chance

14320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

938

Will BloomTech (formerly Lambda School) be found guilty of misrepresenting student outcomes?

Nov 21, 6:38 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

30.21%chance

7180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

60

Will Love Bloom on A Battlefield before 2027? (See description)

Aug 4, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.55%chance

256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

65

Will Bloomberg IPO before the end of 2035?

Apr 10, 8:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.26%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

138

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