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Prediction markets for Bloom

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.98%chance

1329775460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

813348

24425

Will Bloomberg terminals have a Manifold integration before 2026?

Aug 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.03%chance

5621084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6673

978

Which 2025 romance anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList?

Aug 5, 7:56 PMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

149224

OptionProbability

The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity

DAN DA DAN Season 2

My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season

Other

Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus

The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, Really Love You 2nd Season

Rent-A-Girlfriend 4th Season

Honey Lemon Soda

My Happy Marriage Season 2

37

33

13

8

5

1

1

1

1

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204112

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Scott Aaronson

Matt Yglesias

Zvi Mowshowitz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Philipp Markolin

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

74

74

72

72

61

50

50

41

35

28

19

18

17

10

9

5

3

1

Which 2025 comedy anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList?

Aug 27, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

51633

OptionProbability

The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity

My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season

Dr. STONE SCIENCE FUTURE Cour 2

Other

DAN DA DAN Season 2

SPY×FAMILY Season 3

Dr. STONE SCIENCE FUTURE

SAKAMOTO DAYS

Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus

The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, REALLY Love You 2nd Season

WIND BREAKER Season 2

I've Been Killing Slimes for 300 Years and Maxed Out My Level Season 2

14

12

11

11

10

10

8

8

8

4

3

2

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.99%chance

23555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

931

Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 9, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.05%chance

12358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

928

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.06%chance

13270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

945

Will BloomTech (formerly Lambda School) be found guilty of misrepresenting student outcomes?

Nov 21, 6:38 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

30.21%chance

7180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

60

Will Summer Bloom be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025?

Oct 19, 4:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1%chance

2164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

68

Will Love Bloom on A Battlefield before 2027? (See description)

Aug 4, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.55%chance

256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

65

Will Bloomberg IPO before the end of 2035?

Apr 10, 8:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.26%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

138

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