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Prediction markets for Botto

By 2030, will there be an bottom-up trained AI/bot in Runescape that reaches Combat Level 50 (bypassing Runescape's natural bot-detection algorithms)?

Jan 1, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.03%chance

451249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

814

Will Kalshi release internal data on losses incurred by the bottom decile of users?

Feb 4, 6:30 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

20.94%chance

9979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1943

515

Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?

Jan 1, 7:33 AMNov 1, 5:01 AM

69.04%chance

40901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

946

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Who in the GC will get married next

Apr 27, 2:29 AMApr 27, 2:15 AM

6115

OptionProbability

Jean

Emily

Max

Werly

Justin

Logan

Mike

Built

Demily

Ronin

Colin

Botto

Kareem

Other

27

19

14

7

6

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Bottom 50% of US income distribution's real incomes will grow over 2% annually on average from beginning of 2022 to end of 2025.

Feb 12, 5:14 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

4102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

90

Is Jose Luis Ricon a top (quark) or a bottom (quark)?

Aug 16, 10:37 PM

50

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