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Prediction markets for Bridges

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.8%chance

949754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2254

105

Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?

May 13, 1:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.19%chance

606735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1621

634

Will there be another major bridge collapse in the US by the end of 2025?

Apr 1, 10:57 PMJan 1, 3:35 AM

14.09%chance

264828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1548

853

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Aug 27, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.06%chance

254359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

761

Bridge built connecting any major Hawaiian islands through 2040

Aug 28, 2:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.58%chance

152795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

950

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

76.77%chance

381544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1812

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

30.83%chance

351372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

622

Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?

Jul 5, 9:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.12%chance

20898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

953

Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?

Mar 18, 10:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50%chance

16567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

753

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

971

Strait of Messina bridge open by 2035?

Mar 8, 12:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.19%chance

4220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

820

How many victims will the 11foot8+8 bridge claim in 2025?

Jan 4, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

04

05

06

07

08

Other

17

17

17

17

17

17

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